research areas
population aging
Because of revolutions in family planning and life expectancy, in the late 20th century humanity reached age distributions never before seen in our history as a species, providing a rich set of puzzles about the political, economic, and social causes and consequences of population aging.
national security & foresight
Two of every three people on the planet lives somewhere with below-replacement fertility, yet our prevailing foreign policy, politics, and economics theories were formulated under a different demographic reality. At the same time, a handful of strategic countries are experiencing rapid population growth, urbanization, and displacement. We need to avoid seeing demography as destiny, while recognizing its power to shape the future.
environment
In many wealthy, industrialized countries around the world, the next 25 years will be marked by aging populations with high carbon footprints that further exacerbate climate change. Yet, the impacts of climate change will be most acutely felt by the world’s most vulnerable, many of whom are in the least developed countries with the highest rates of population growth. In many parts of the world population growth is far outpacing the environment’s bounty. Environmental stresses can displace populations and create problems across communities and national borders. Understanding population, environment, and security dynamics as they play out over the next 25 years will be vital to informing effective policies and programs on the ground.
scholarship
Population aging
“Population Aging and National Security in Asia.” International Affairs, Vol. 99. Issue 5 (2023): 2119-2136.
“Political Demography.” In Handbook of International Relations, ed. Cameron Thies. Accepted and
forthcoming (2023).
“Intergenerational Controversy and Cultural Clashes: Political Consequences of Demographic Change in the US and Canada since 1990.” In Global Political Demography: The Politics of Population Change, eds. Achim Goerres and Pieter Vanhuysse. Cham, Switzerland: PalgraveMacmillan (2021): 325-350.
“Research in population aging—uncharted territory.” In A Research Agenda for Political Demography, edited by Jennifer D. Sciubba. Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar (2021): 17-28.
“Population Aging as a Global Issue.” Oxford Research Encyclopedia, International Studies. Oxford University Press. (2020): 1-18.
“The Politics of Aging in Singapore and Taiwan.” Asian Survey. Vol. 57. Issue 4 (2017): 642-664. With Chien-Kai Chen.
“Willing and (Somewhat) Able: Japan’s Defense Strategy in a Graying Asia.” Georgetown Journal of Asian Affairs, Fall 2016.
“Securing Rights in the 21st Century: A Comparison of the Disability and Older Persons’ Rights Conventions.” Journal of Human Rights. Vol. 15. Issue 4 (2015): 533-549.
“Explaining the Timing and Support of the Campaign for a UN Convention on the Rights of Older People.” International Journal of Human Rights Vol 18. Issue 4-5 (2014): 462-478.
“Framing and Power in Aging Advocacy.” Social Movement StudiesVolume 13, Issue 4 (2013): 465-481.
“Rhetoric and Action on Aging in Germany, Italy, and Japan: Party Platforms and Labor Policies in the World’s Oldest Democracies.” In Ageing Populations in Postindustrial Democracies, edited by Pieter Vanhuysse and Achim Goerres. Abingdon: Routledge/ECPR European Political Science Series (2012).
national security & foresight
“Population Aging and National Security in Asia.” International Affairs, Vol. 99. Issue 5 (2023): 2119-2136.
“Population and National Security.” International Handbook of Population Policies. Springer Nature, edited by John May and Jack Goldstone. (2022): 743-757. With Seongjoon Hwang.
“Willing and (Somewhat) Able: Japan’s Defense Strategy in a Graying Asia.” Georgetown Journal of Asian Affairs, Fall 2016.
“The Effect of Age Structure on the Abrogation of Military Alliances.” International Interactions. Vol. 41. Issue 2 (2015): 279-308. With TongFi Kim.
“Coffins Versus Cradles: Russian Population, Foreign Policy, and Power Transition Theory.” International Area Studies Review Vol. 7, No. 2 (2014): 205-221.
“Population Aging and Power Transition Theory.” In Political Demography: Interests, Conflict and Institutions, edited by Jack Goldstone, Monica Duffy Toft, and Eric Kaufmann. Oxford University Press. (2012).
“Demography and Instability in the Developing World.” Orbis: A Journal of World Affairs,(Spring 2012).
“Population in Defense Policy Planning.” Environmental Change and Security Program Report, Issue 13. Washington, DC: Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars (2009).
“The Defense Implications of Demographic Trends: Age Structure, Migration, and Urbanization.” Joint Force Quarterly Vol. 48 (1st quarter, January 2008). Received 2009 Kiley Award for Best Feature.
environment
“The Effect of Population Growth on the Environment: Evidence from European Regions.” European Journal of Population. Vol. 35. Issue 2 (2018): 379-402. With Hannes Weber.
“Population and Environmental Security.” In Environmental Security: Approaches and Issues, edited by Rita Floyd and Richard Matthew. Abingdon: Routledge (2013). With Geoffrey Dabelko and Carolyn Lamere.